Kilbarry

2yo Colt · 8-7 · Draw 8 · OR 62

Keeneland · Race 8 - Maiden Claiming · 6f

#10

Rank

Odds

30/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

#10

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKED

Move▼2

Strength35%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 9.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.3

Today:

Class gap: +2.3

Higher-class runs: 2

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-29	Kentucky Downs	?	12th	9th	+3	1.0
2026-07-24	Ellis Park	?	6th	4th	+2	6.4

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish11th of 110% of fieldRange 11-11 · tight 71/100

▬ OVER-DELIVERING

Trend▼

Strength0%

Delivery trend -28.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
24/07/2026	6th	25/1	0%	29%	+0.29
29/08/2026	12th	20/1	0%	0%	0.00