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2

Arantes Nascimento

5yo Gelding · 9-13 · Draw 6 · OR 74

Kempton · Try Unibet's New Improved Acca Boosts Apprentice Handicap · 7f

#2

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

9%

Place Prob

21%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Versatile sort who is holding his form really well this year. Runner-up 5 times either side of his C&D success in April. Hampered at the start at Lingfield in August so that run probably best overlooked.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength57%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Chelmsford City 02/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 71 · 7f Std 130 · beat its mark02/01/2026 · OR 71 par2/015OR 715 @ Wolverhampton 19/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 72 · 7f36y Std 131 · beat its mark19/01/2026 · OR 72 par5 @ Chelmsford City 26/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 72 · 7f Std 132 · beat its mark26/02/2026 · OR 72 par26/025OR 725 @ Kempton 18/03/2026 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR 72 · 1m Sta 132 · beat its mark18/03/2026 · OR 72 par5 @ Kempton 08/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 71 · 7f Sta 131 · beat its mark08/04/2026 · OR 71 par8/045OR 714 @ Newmarket 16/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 74 · 6f Goo 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 74 par5 @ Salisbury 09/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 74 · 6f Sft 134 · beat its mark09/06/2026 · OR 74 par9/065OR 744 @ Ascot 11/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 17 · OR 75 · 7f GF 137 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 75 par4 @ Lingfield 08/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 75 · 7f1y Std 134 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark08/08/2026 · OR 75 par8/084OR 75projClass-projected finish: 6th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-08Lingfield46th5th+1
2026-07-11Ascot46th5th+1
2026-06-09Salisbury52nd2nd0
2026-05-16Newmarket42nd1st+1
2026-04-08Kempton51st1st0
2026-03-18Kempton57th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/0118/039/068/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 43/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▼
Strength55%

Delivery trend -3.7% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/01/20262nd11/486%88%+0.02
19/01/20262nd9/276%88%+0.11
26/02/20262nd7/282%86%+0.04
18/03/20267th14/126%50%+0.24
08/04/20261st11/142%100%+0.58
16/05/20262nd11/271%89%+0.18
09/06/20262nd5/174%89%+0.15
11/07/20266th10/147%69%+0.21
08/08/20266th7/282%17%-0.65