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6

Caragio

6yo Gelding · 9-8 · Draw 3 · OR 69

Kempton · Try Unibet's New Improved Acca Boosts Apprentice Handicap · 7f

#4

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#4

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Confirmed stable debut promise when winning 6-runner handicap at Yarmouth (6f) in April. Below that level in 2 outings at the start of the summer but right back on his game the last twice, third of 12 returned to 7f at Southwell 11 days ago. Enters calculations with eyeshields fitted.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength57%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 5.9)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Chelmsford City 16/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 75 · 7f Std 135 · below its mark16/10/2025 · OR 75 par16/105OR 755 @ Chelmsford City 27/11/2025 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 70 · 7f Std 133 · beat its mark27/11/2025 · OR 70 par5 @ Wolverhampton 15/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 66 · 1m142y Std 132 · beat its mark15/12/2025 · OR 66 par15/125OR 666 @ Chelmsford City 26/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 63 · 7f Std 133 · beat its mark26/03/2026 · OR 63 par5 @ Yarmouth 21/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 66 · 6f3y GF 131 · beat its mark21/04/2026 · OR 66 par21/045OR 665 @ Newcastle 01/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 66 · 6f Std 136 · beat its mark01/05/2026 · OR 66 par5 @ Doncaster 14/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 73 · 7f6y Goo 133 · beat its mark14/06/2026 · OR 73 par14/065OR 735 @ Doncaster 11/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 70 · 1m Goo 161 · beat its mark11/09/2026 · OR 70 par5 @ Southwell 26/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 69 · 7f15y Std 135 · beat its mark26/09/2026 · OR 69 par26/095OR 69projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-26Southwell53rd3rd0
2026-09-11Doncaster53rd3rd0
2026-06-14Doncaster56th6th0
2026-05-01Newcastle55th5th0
2026-04-21Yarmouth51st1st0
2026-03-26Chelmsford City62nd3rd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/1026/0314/0626/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 67/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▬
Strength80%

Delivery trend -0.3% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 3rd of 9.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/10/20257th40/10%0%0.00
27/11/20257th20/10%25%+0.25
15/12/20256th17/255%17%-0.39
26/03/20262nd2/189%90%+0.01
21/04/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
01/05/20265th6/492%64%-0.28
14/06/20266th11/142%50%+0.08
11/09/20263rd7/282%83%+0.02
26/09/20263rd11/486%82%-0.04