Timely Affair
4yo Gelding · 9-7 · Draw 9 · OR 68
Kempton · Try Unibet's New Improved Acca Boosts Apprentice Handicap · 7f
#5
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | Yarmouth | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | Lingfield | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Southwell | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Newmarket | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Yarmouth | 6 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-04-29 | Southwell | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +3.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/01/2026 | 5th | 1/1 | 95% | 64% | -0.31 |
| 25/03/2026 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 88% | -0.07 |
| 11/04/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 88% | -0.04 |
| 29/04/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 20/05/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 78% | +0.17 |
| 20/06/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 23/07/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 22/08/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 17/09/2026 | 8th | 13/2 | 66% | 46% | -0.20 |