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4

Lancaster Tower

2yo Colt · 9-4 · Draw 9

Kempton · Unibet Supports Safer Gambling EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race) · 7f

#3

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

6%

Rank

#3

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Bred in the purple. Warm order when very encouraging 1¾ lengths third to a subsequent listed winner in a strong Sandown novice (7f) on debut. Too free to show true worth at York a month later but hood goes on switched to all-weather and much better expected this time.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength16%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.5
Today: 3
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Sandown 29/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR - · 7f Goo 13029/0732 @ York 21/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR - · 7f GS 133 · HIGHER CLASS21/082projClass-projected finish: 1st of 1
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-21York28th7th+1
2026-07-29Sandown33rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/0721/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 7-7 · tight 71/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength28%

Delivery trend -5.1% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/07/20263rd5/696%60%-0.36
21/08/20268th5/287%46%-0.41