Barbuda Bay
3yo Filly · 9-3 · Draw 4 · OR 59
Kempton · Try Unibet's New Smartview Racecards Handicap · 7f
#12
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 6.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Lingfield | 5 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-08-17 | Lingfield | 5 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-08-01 | Doncaster | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Bath | 6 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-04-27 | Lingfield | 4 | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-04-06 | Kempton | 4 | 8th | 6th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +2.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/08/2025 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 86% | +0.17 |
| 24/09/2025 | 10th | 13/2 | 66% | 31% | -0.35 |
| 06/04/2026 | 8th | 9/4 | 88% | 22% | -0.66 |
| 27/04/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 55% | +0.28 |
| 13/06/2026 | 11th | 25/1 | 0% | 23% | +0.23 |
| 01/08/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 17/08/2026 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 03/09/2026 | 5th | 7/4 | 91% | 0% | -0.91 |