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Royal County Glory

3yo Gelding · 9-9 · Draw 1 · OR 65

Kempton · Try Unibet's New Smartview Racecards Handicap · 7f

#2

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#2

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Ex-Irish recruit. On the up for new yard when landing a pair of 7f all-weather handicaps at Lingfield recently. Only ninth of 10 in handicap at Brighton (7f, good) 9 days ago but no surprise to see him go well back on all-weather with Oisin Murphy up.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength29%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class: BHA56
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA59 @ Dundalk 10/12/2025 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 59 · 6f Std 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/12/2025 · OR 59 par10/1259OR 59BHA57 @ Dundalk 01/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 57 · 6f Std 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/04/2026 · OR 57 parBHA57 @ Dundalk 10/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 57 · 7f Std 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/04/2026 · OR 57 par10/0457OR 57BHA62 @ Fairyhouse 28/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR 62 · 7f Gd 130 · beat its mark28/05/2026 · OR 62 parBHA60 @ Gowran Park 01/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 16 · OR 60 · 1m Yie 132 · beat its mark01/06/2026 · OR 60 par1/0660OR 606 @ Lingfield 20/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 60 · 6f1y Std 134 · beat its mark20/08/2026 · OR 60 par6 @ Lingfield 27/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 60 · 7f1y Std 135 · beat its mark27/08/2026 · OR 60 par27/086OR 606 @ Lingfield 12/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 62 · 7f1y Std 132 · beat its mark12/09/2026 · OR 62 par6 @ Brighton 28/09/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 65 · 6f210y Goo 137 · below its mark28/09/2026 · OR 65 par28/096OR 65projClass-projected finish: 6th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-28Brighton69th9th0
2026-09-12Lingfield61st1st0
2026-08-27Lingfield61st1st0
2026-08-20Lingfield62nd2nd0
2026-06-01Gowran ParkBHA609th9th0
2026-05-28FairyhouseBHA625th5th−0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/1228/0527/0828/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 14100% of fieldRange 5-13 · tight 59/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength38%

Delivery trend -6.1% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/12/20254th13/266%77%+0.11
01/04/20263rd4/179%83%+0.04
10/04/20261st10/382%100%+0.18
28/05/20265th17/255%67%+0.11
01/06/20269th9/276%47%-0.30
20/08/20262nd9/488%90%+0.02
27/08/20261st4/797%100%+0.03
12/09/20261st1/195%100%+0.05
28/09/20269th10/382%11%-0.71