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12

Surgeon Commander

3yo Gelding · 9-3 · Draw 13 · OR 59

Kempton · Try Unibet's New Smartview Racecards Handicap · 7f

#7

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Gained a third win at Newcastle (all 7f) in June. Off 2 months and below par in 6f handicaps at Southwell and back at Newcastle since. More is needed.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength34%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Newcastle 20/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 55 · 7f14y Std 135 · beat its mark20/12/2025 · OR 55 par20/126OR 556 @ Wolverhampton 12/01/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 56 · 7f36y Std 127 · below its mark12/01/2026 · OR 56 par6 @ Newcastle 22/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 56 · 7f14y Std 131 · beat its mark22/01/2026 · OR 56 par22/016OR 566 @ Newcastle 31/01/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 58 · 6f Std 128 · beat its mark31/01/2026 · OR 58 par6 @ Wetherby 04/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 59 · 5f110y Goo 133 · beat its mark04/06/2026 · OR 59 par4/066OR 596 @ Doncaster 14/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 15 · OR 57 · 7f6y Goo 127 · beat its mark14/06/2026 · OR 57 par6 @ Newcastle 25/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 57 · 7f14y Sta 127 · beat its mark25/06/2026 · OR 57 par25/066OR 576 @ Southwell 31/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 60 · 6f16y Std 135 · beat its mark31/08/2026 · OR 60 par6 @ Newcastle 19/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 60 · 6f Std 133 · beat its mark19/09/2026 · OR 60 par19/096OR 60projClass-projected finish: 8th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-19Newcastle66th6th0
2026-08-31Southwell66th6th0
2026-06-25Newcastle61st1st0
2026-06-14Doncaster64th4th0
2026-06-04Wetherby66th6th0
2026-01-31Newcastle63rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/1231/0125/0619/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1477% of fieldRange 1-14 · tight 24/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength46%

Delivery trend -1.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 14.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/12/20251st9/488%100%+0.12
12/01/20267th5/174%14%-0.59
22/01/20261st9/153%100%+0.47
31/01/20263rd6/168%71%+0.03
04/06/20266th12/137%29%-0.08
14/06/20264th28/10%79%+0.79
25/06/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
31/08/20266th4/179%55%-0.24
19/09/20266th5/174%38%-0.36