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Kiniro

4yo Gelding · 9-11 · Draw 1 · OR 75

Kempton · Get Daily Price Boosts At Unibet Handicap · 6f

#4

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#4

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Winless this season but posted a good third over 7f here in August. Went too keenly when ninth of 14 at Newmarket (7f, good to firm) 18 days ago. Both his victories have come on this surface though so no surprise to see him go well off a handy-looking mark with Oisin Murphy back up.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▼1
Strength53%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.2)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 5
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Southwell 27/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 75 · 6f16y Std 136 · beat its mark27/09/2025 · OR 75 par27/095OR 755 @ Lingfield 14/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 75 · 6f1y Std 135 · beat its mark14/10/2025 · OR 75 par4 @ Chester 08/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 80 · 6f17y Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/05/2026 · OR 80 par8/054OR 804 @ York 23/05/2026 · Pos 11th of 20 · OR 80 · 6f Goo 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/05/2026 · OR 80 par4 @ Newbury 11/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 79 · 6f GS 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/06/2026 · OR 79 par11/064OR 794 @ Windsor 27/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 79 · 6f12y GF 135 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark27/06/2026 · OR 79 par4 @ Kempton 12/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 78 · 7f Sta 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/08/2026 · OR 78 par12/084OR 784 @ Kempton 04/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR 77 · 7f Sta 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/09/2026 · OR 77 par4 @ Newmarket 19/09/2026 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR 76 · 7f Gd 136 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/09/2026 · OR 76 par19/094OR 76projClass-projected finish: 4th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-19Newmarket49th8th+1
2026-09-04Kempton47th6th+1
2026-08-12Kempton43rd2nd+1
2026-06-27Windsor48th7th+1
2026-06-11Newbury42nd1st+1
2026-05-23York411th10th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/0923/0512/0819/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1282% of fieldRange 3-10 · tight 58/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength52%

Delivery trend +2.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/09/20253rd3/184%78%-0.06
14/10/20251st7/491%100%+0.09
08/05/20268th16/116%36%+0.21
23/05/202611th33/10%47%+0.47
11/06/20262nd6/168%86%+0.17
27/06/20268th15/261%22%-0.38
12/08/20263rd13/266%80%+0.14
04/09/20267th16/116%50%+0.34
19/09/20269th18/15%38%+0.33