7
Liosa
6yo Gelding · 9-9 · Draw 3 · OR 73
Kempton · Get Daily Price Boosts At Unibet Handicap · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
92%
Place Prob
68%
Rank
#1
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Windsor | 5 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-08-21 | Ffos Las | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Salisbury | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Ripon | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-23 | Windsor | 6 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-04-13 | Leicester | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1273% of fieldRange 7-12 · tight 69/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -7.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/09/2025 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 08/10/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 23/10/2025 | 10th | 8/1 | 58% | 18% | -0.40 |
| 13/04/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 63% | -0.01 |
| 23/05/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 62% | +0.35 |
| 18/06/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 25/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 78% | +0.07 |
| 21/08/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 20% | -0.59 |
| 14/09/2026 | 13th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |