IvyArcIvyArc
3

Madman

3yo Gelding · 9-10 · Draw 6 · OR 75

Kempton · Get Daily Price Boosts At Unibet Handicap · 6f

#2

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

7%

Place Prob

18%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

C&D winner for Tom Ward in January. On the up for his current yard and gained a third success of the summer in 12-runner handicap at Salisbury (6f, soft) 26 days ago. Up another 5 lb but scored comfortably there so a likely player with Billy Loughnane up.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength39%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 4.1)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Kempton 01/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 62 · 6f Sta 132 · beat its mark01/04/2026 · OR 62 par1/046OR 625 @ Windsor 04/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 62 · 6f12y Goo 127 · beat its mark04/05/2026 · OR 62 par6 @ Windsor 18/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 61 · 6f12y Goo 131 · below its mark18/05/2026 · OR 61 par18/056OR 616 @ Salisbury 09/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 59 · 6f Sft 130 · beat its mark09/06/2026 · OR 59 par6 @ Epsom Downs 16/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 59 · 7f3y Goo 129 · beat its mark16/07/2026 · OR 59 par16/076OR 595 @ Windsor 27/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 58 · 6f12y GF 123 · beat its mark27/07/2026 · OR 58 par5 @ Windsor 13/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 62 · 6f12y GF 129 · beat its mark13/08/2026 · OR 62 par13/085OR 624 @ Windsor 29/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 70 · 6f12y Sft 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 70 par5 @ Salisbury 11/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 70 · 6f Sft 135 · beat its mark11/09/2026 · OR 70 par11/095OR 70projClass-projected finish: 1st of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-11Salisbury51st1st0
2026-08-29Windsor43rd2nd+1
2026-08-13Windsor51st1st0
2026-07-27Windsor51st1st0
2026-07-16Epsom Downs66th7th−1
2026-06-09Salisbury62nd3rd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/049/0613/0811/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12100% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 78/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +5.7% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/04/20265th4/179%56%-0.23
04/05/20266th11/142%58%+0.16
18/05/20269th13/266%27%-0.39
09/06/20262nd25/10%90%+0.90
16/07/20266th12/137%29%-0.08
27/07/20261st11/271%100%+0.29
13/08/20261st6/168%100%+0.32
29/08/20263rd11/486%60%-0.26
11/09/20261st14/126%100%+0.74