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7

Desert Belle

3yo Filly · 9-7 · Draw 2 · OR 69

Kempton · Set Your Limits With Unibet Handicap · 1m 7f 218y

#2

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

12%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Landed Southwell novice in April and has held her form well in handicaps since, fourth of 12 over C&D in August. Ought to be thereabouts after a break.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength47%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 2.5)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Lingfield 20/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 1m1y Std 12320/0354 @ Southwell 05/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR - · 1m4f14y Std 114 · HIGHER CLASS5 @ Wolverhampton 18/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 69 · 1m4f51y Std 121 · beat its mark18/05/2026 · OR 69 par18/055OR 694 @ Kempton 10/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 68 · 1m3f219y Sta 116 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/06/2026 · OR 68 par5 @ Wolverhampton 14/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 67 · 1m4f51y Std 123 · beat its mark14/07/2026 · OR 67 par14/075OR 675 @ Southwell 27/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 67 · 1m6f21y Std 129 · beat its mark27/07/2026 · OR 67 par5 @ Kempton 05/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 67 · 1m7f218y Sta 128 · beat its mark05/08/2026 · OR 67 par5/085OR 674 @ Kempton 10/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 69 · 1m7f218y Sta 114 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/08/2026 · OR 69 par10/084OR 69projClass-projected finish: 1st of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-10Kempton44th3rd+1
2026-08-05Kempton52nd2nd0
2026-07-27Southwell52nd2nd0
2026-07-14Wolverhampton52nd2nd0
2026-06-10Kempton43rd2nd+1
2026-05-18Wolverhampton54th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/0310/065/0810/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 60/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▲
Strength77%

Delivery trend +2.3% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/03/20262nd10/1195%86%-0.10
05/04/20261st6/492%100%+0.08
18/05/20264th6/492%25%-0.67
10/06/20263rd8/158%75%+0.17
14/07/20262nd5/287%88%+0.01
27/07/20262nd11/486%88%+0.02
05/08/20262nd5/493%86%-0.08
10/08/20264th11/271%73%+0.02