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9

Last Flight

3yo Filly · 8-13 · Draw 3 · OR 61

Kempton · Set Your Limits With Unibet Handicap · 1m 7f 218y

#3

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#3

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

On the up for her new yard and landed 2m handicaps at Ffos Las in August and Southwell 15 days ago. Up another 4 lb but very much one to consider in her hat-trick bid.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength34%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Newcastle 20/12/2025 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR - · 1m5y Std 12620/1254 @ Lingfield 27/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR - · 1m2f Std 123 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Bath 22/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR - · 1m2f37y Goo 124 · HIGHER CLASS22/0546 @ Wolverhampton 16/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 53 · 1m4f51y Std 133 · beat its mark16/06/2026 · OR 53 par6 @ Wolverhampton 07/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 52 · 1m5f219y Std 121 · beat its mark07/07/2026 · OR 52 par7/076OR 526 @ Lingfield 08/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 53 · 1m7f169y Std 125 · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 53 par6 @ Ffos Las 27/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 54 · 2m Gd 120 · beat its mark27/08/2026 · OR 54 par27/086OR 546 @ Southwell 22/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 57 · 2m102y Std 130 · beat its mark22/09/2026 · OR 57 par22/096OR 57projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-22Southwell61st2nd−1
2026-08-27Ffos Las61st2nd−1
2026-08-08Lingfield63rd4th−1
2026-07-07Wolverhampton63rd4th−1
2026-06-16Wolverhampton65th6th−1
2026-05-22Bath47th6th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/1216/0627/0822/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 73/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +3.5% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/12/20257th9/153%0%-0.53
27/04/20267th50/10%45%+0.45
22/05/20267th40/10%0%0.00
16/06/20265th18/15%56%+0.50
07/07/20263rd22/10%60%+0.60
08/08/20263rd13/266%78%+0.12
27/08/20261st9/488%100%+0.12
22/09/20261st5/493%100%+0.07