4
Luan
4yo Gelding · 9-13 · Draw 4 · OR 67
Kempton · Set Your Limits With Unibet Handicap · 1m 7f 218y
#5
Rank
Odds
9/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength26%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 5
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-09-01 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-08-06 | Southwell | 6 | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2026-07-14 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-26 | Newcastle | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-02 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 9th | 10th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 52/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▼
Strength73%
Delivery trend -3.6% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08/2025 | 5th | 150/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 23/09/2025 | 6th | 22/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 14/10/2025 | 13th | 6/1 | 68% | 14% | -0.54 |
| 02/06/2026 | 9th | 7/1 | 63% | 20% | -0.43 |
| 26/06/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 14/07/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 06/08/2026 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 20% | -0.33 |
| 01/09/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 18/09/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |