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11

Mbappe

5yo Gelding · 9-4 · Draw 3 · OR 52

Kempton · Unibet 3 Uniboosts A Day Handicap · 1m

#3

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#3

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Scored over C&D in January (for today's rider) but hasn't been able to get involved on all 5 starts since returning from 5 months off. Mark eased further though and well worth a market check with Billy Loughnane now back in the saddle.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength29%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 5.7)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Wolverhampton 27/12/2025 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 60 · 1m142y Std 135 · beat its mark27/12/2025 · OR 60 par27/126OR 606 @ Kempton 19/01/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 58 · 1m Sta 129 · beat its mark19/01/2026 · OR 58 par6 @ Kempton 28/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 58 · 1m 134 · beat its mark28/01/2026 · OR 58 par28/016OR 586 @ Kempton 04/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 58 · 1m Sta 138 · beat its mark04/02/2026 · OR 58 par6 @ Nottingham 25/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 61 · 1m75y Goo 135 · below its mark25/06/2026 · OR 61 par25/066OR 616 @ Bath 15/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 60 · 1m Fm 140 · below its mark15/07/2026 · OR 60 par6 @ Lingfield 15/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 58 · 1m1y Std 134 · beat its mark15/08/2026 · OR 58 par15/086OR 586 @ Bath 02/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 56 · 1m Goo 131 · beat its mark02/09/2026 · OR 56 par6 @ Kempton 14/09/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 54 · 1m Sta 134 · below its mark14/09/2026 · OR 54 par14/096OR 54projClass-projected finish: 13th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-14Kempton610th10th0
2026-09-02Bath67th7th0
2026-08-15Lingfield65th5th0
2026-07-15Bath66th6th0
2026-06-25Nottingham67th7th0
2026-02-04Kempton66th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/124/0215/0814/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1367% of fieldRange 6-13 · tight 61/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength13%

Delivery trend +2.2% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/12/20258th11/271%30%-0.41
19/01/20263rd11/486%71%-0.14
28/01/20261st11/1094%100%+0.06
04/02/20266th3/184%38%-0.47
25/06/20267th22/10%14%+0.14
15/07/20266th13/266%17%-0.49
15/08/20265th33/10%20%+0.20
02/09/20267th40/10%40%+0.40
14/09/202610th17/255%0%-0.55