6
Our Dagger
5yo Gelding · 9-7 · Draw 5 · OR 55
Kempton · Unibet 3 Uniboosts A Day Handicap · 1m
#7
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength55%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 8.1)
Highest class: BHA47
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | Ffos Las | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-30 | Kempton | 5 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-10-27 | Galway | BHA60 | 15th | 15th | 0 |
| 2025-09-09 | Galway | BHA61 | 12th | 12th | −0 |
| 2025-04-28 | Ayr | 5 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-02-12 | Kempton | 6 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1333% of fieldRange 11-13 · tight 83/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -5.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08/2024 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 22/10/2024 | 17th | 33/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 31/01/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 12/02/2025 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 28/04/2025 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 55% | -0.28 |
| 09/09/2025 | 12th | 22/1 | 0% | 21% | +0.21 |
| 27/10/2025 | 15th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 30/03/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 20% | -0.62 |
| 04/08/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |