2
Olaf The Big One
7yo Gelding · 9-3 · Draw 1
Marseille · Prix Du Port De Banc Handicap · 1m 1f 207y
#2
Rank
Odds
13/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength17%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 6.5)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 | Salon-De-Provence | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Vichy | 4 | 0 | ||
| 2026-06-20 | Marseille | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Marseille | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-18 | Marseille-borely | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Marseille | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 3-7 · tight 64/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength42%
Delivery trend +5.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/02/2026 | 9th | 3/1 | 84% | 20% | -0.64 |
| 04/03/2026 | 10th | 15/2 | 61% | 18% | -0.42 |
| 03/04/2026 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 27% | -0.25 |
| 18/04/2026 | 11th | 12/1 | 37% | 17% | -0.20 |
| 02/05/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 18/05/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 75% | +0.04 |
| 06/06/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 17% | -0.31 |
| 20/06/2026 | 6th | 11/4 | 86% | 55% | -0.31 |
| 25/09/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 36% | +0.10 |