7
Balta
3yo Gelding · 8-7 · Draw 6
Marseille · Prix De L'ile De Tiboulen Handicap · 7f 100y
#5
Rank
Odds
13/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength17%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Salon-De-Provence | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | Vichy | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Vichy | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Marseille | 3 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Marseille | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-22 | Marseille | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 52/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength64%
Delivery trend +3.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/03/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 09/04/2026 | 8th | 15/2 | 61% | 42% | -0.19 |
| 02/05/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 22/05/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 89% | +0.52 |
| 06/06/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 71% | +0.06 |
| 20/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 89% | +0.03 |
| 24/07/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 75% | +0.28 |
| 19/08/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 38% | -0.10 |
| 14/09/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |