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6

Beware Of The Bear

3yo Colt · 8-7 · Draw 4

Marseille · Prix De L'ile De Tiboulen Handicap · 7f 100y

#1

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

97%

Place Prob

75%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength24%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Chantilly 27/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 62 · 6f101y Std 120 · beat its mark27/02/2026 · OR 62 par27/02C5OR 62C5 @ Marseille 04/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 62 · 7f100y Std 124 · beat its mark04/03/2026 · OR 62 parC0 @ Marseille 22/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR - · 7f100y Std 12322/03C?C0 @ Evreux 15/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR - · 5f212y Sft 132C5 @ Marseille 02/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 62 · 7f100y Std 123 · beat its mark02/05/2026 · OR 62 par2/05C5OR 62C5 @ Marseille 22/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 62 · 7f100y Std 132 · beat its mark22/05/2026 · OR 62 par3 @ Marseille 20/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 62 · 7f100y Std 128 · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 62 par20/063OR 62C5 @ Deauville 11/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 62 · 7f100y Std 127 · beat its mark11/08/2026 · OR 62 parC0 @ Salon-De-Provence 14/09/2026 · Pos 10th of 13 · OR - · 1m208y Sft 12114/09C?projClass-projected finish: 4th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-14Salon-De-Provence?10th10th0
2026-08-11Deauville?7th7th0
2026-06-20Marseille31st1st0
2026-05-22Marseille?5th5th0
2026-05-02Marseille?1st1st0
2026-04-15Evreux?7th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/0215/0420/0614/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 67/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength75%

Delivery trend +9.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/02/20265th4/179%60%-0.19
04/03/20265th11/1094%50%-0.44
22/03/20265th5/287%56%-0.31
15/04/20267th11/486%40%-0.46
02/05/20261st10/382%100%+0.18
22/05/20265th15/890%56%-0.35
20/06/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
11/08/20267th16/116%54%+0.38
14/09/202610th50/10%25%+0.25