9
Nocturne Blou
3yo Filly · 8-4 · Draw 2
Marseille · Prix De L'ile De Tiboulen Handicap · 7f 100y
#6
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Vichy | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Vichy | 3 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Vichy | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-22 | Marseille | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Marseille | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-12-16 | Marseille | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 938% of fieldRange 2-9 · tight 43/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength27%
Delivery trend +4.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08/2025 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 57% | -0.31 |
| 03/09/2025 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 08/12/2025 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 16/12/2025 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 02/05/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 22/05/2026 | 9th | 18/1 | 5% | 11% | +0.06 |
| 20/07/2026 | 4th | 50/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 03/08/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 43% | -0.36 |
| 21/09/2026 | 11th | 20/1 | 0% | 23% | +0.23 |