5
Santa Luzia
3yo Filly · 9-2 · Draw 7
Marseille · Prix De L'ile De Tiboulen Handicap · 7f 100y
#7
Rank
Odds
18/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Saint-Cloud | ? | 15th | 15th | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Vichy | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Vichy | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Marseille | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-21 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 90% of fieldRange 9-9 · tight 90/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -12.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/04/2026 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 22/04/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 89% | +0.52 |
| 08/05/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 21/05/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 47% | +0.47 |
| 11/06/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 85% | +0.58 |
| 20/06/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 71% | +0.00 |
| 20/07/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |
| 06/08/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 43% | -0.20 |
| 11/09/2026 | 15th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |