1
Zarwalyah
3yo Filly · 9-7 · Draw 3
Marseille · Prix De L'ile De Tiboulen Handicap · 7f 100y
#2
Rank
Odds
33/10
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
12%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 5.7)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Saint-Cloud | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Deauville | ? | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Dax | 2 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Marseille | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-06 | Marseille-borely | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-12 | Chantilly | 2 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 74/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength92%
Delivery trend -2.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |
| 06/12/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 88% | +0.72 |
| 05/01/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 12/03/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 06/05/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 86% | +0.04 |
| 06/06/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 29/06/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 29% | -0.19 |
| 15/08/2026 | 14th | 40/1 | 0% | 7% | +0.07 |
| 11/09/2026 | 8th | 22/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |