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8

Cayssie Ma Star

4yo Filly · 8-8 · Draw 1

Marseille · Prix De La Madrague Stakes · 7f 100y

#4

Rank

Odds

17/4

Win Prob

5%

Place Prob

12%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▼1
Strength52%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.4
Today:
Class gap: +1.1
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Chantilly 27/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 16 · OR - · 6f211y Ver 12427/10C?C5 @ Deauville 07/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR - · 6f211y Std 120C0 @ Deauville 13/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR - · 6f211y Std 13013/12C?3 @ Deauville 22/01/2026 · Pos 3rd of 16 · OR - · 6f101y Std 131 · HIGHER CLASS3 @ Chantilly 19/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 16 · OR - · 6f101y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS19/0234 @ Marseille 04/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR - · 7f100y Std 120 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Marseille 22/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR - · 7f100y Std 127 · HIGHER CLASS22/0343 @ Deauville 08/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR - · 6f211y GS 132 · HIGHER CLASSC0 @ Chantilly 14/09/2026 · Pos 14th of 14 · OR - · 7f209y Std 13114/09C?projClass-projected finish: 5th of 8
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-14Chantilly?14th14th0
2026-04-08Deauville35th3rd+2
2026-03-22Marseille42nd1st+1
2026-03-04Marseille41st0th+1
2026-02-19Chantilly35th3rd+2
2026-01-22Deauville33rd1st+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/1022/0122/0314/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 64/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength71%

Delivery trend -6.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/10/20253rd40/10%87%+0.87
07/11/20252nd15/261%92%+0.32
13/12/20253rd4/179%83%+0.04
22/01/20263rd6/168%87%+0.18
19/02/20265th11/271%73%+0.02
04/03/20261st7/163%100%+0.37
22/03/20262nd10/147%89%+0.42
08/04/20265th11/271%64%-0.07
14/09/202614th22/10%0%0.00