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5

Cervaro

7yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 7

Marseille · Prix De La Madrague Stakes · 7f 100y

#1

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

60%

Place Prob

40%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength44%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 6.4)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.0
Today:
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Marseille 09/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR - · 7f100y Std 131 · HIGHER CLASS9/0343 @ Deauville 08/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR - · 6f211y GS 128 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Lyon-Parilly 18/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR - · 7f209y Sft 122 · HIGHER CLASS18/0444 @ Lyon-Parilly 14/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR - · 5f212y Ver 152 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Marseille 06/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR - · 7f100y Std 123 · HIGHER CLASS6/0644 @ Marseille 20/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR - · 7f100y Std 130 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Vichy 20/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 16 · OR - · 6f211y GS 125 · HIGHER CLASS20/0744 @ Vichy 06/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR - · 7f209y Sft 129 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Vichy 03/09/2026 · Pos 11th of 13 · OR - · 7f209y Sft 130 · HIGHER CLASS3/094projClass-projected finish: 4th of 8
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-03Vichy411th10th+1
2026-08-06Vichy43rd2nd+1
2026-07-20Vichy43rd2nd+1
2026-06-20Marseille48th7th+1
2026-06-06Marseille43rd2nd+1
2026-05-14Lyon-Parilly45th4th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/0314/0520/073/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 32/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength33%

Delivery trend -6.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/03/20262nd12/137%92%+0.55
08/04/20267th20/10%50%+0.50
18/04/20265th25/10%69%+0.69
14/05/20265th12/137%20%-0.17
06/06/20263rd10/147%82%+0.34
20/06/20268th11/271%13%-0.59
20/07/20263rd20/10%87%+0.87
06/08/20263rd11/142%82%+0.40
03/09/202611th11/142%17%-0.25