Don Falco
7yo Gelding · 9-4 · Draw 2
Marseille · Prix De La Madrague Stakes · 7f 100y
#5
Rank
Odds
13/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 6.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 | Salon-De-Provence | 4 | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2026-07-25 | Vichy | 4 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-06-20 | Marseille | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-06-06 | Marseille | 4 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-05-18 | Marseille-borely | 4 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-04-27 | Marseille-borely | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/03/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 75% | +0.04 |
| 03/04/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 69% | +0.53 |
| 18/04/2026 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 77% | +0.77 |
| 27/04/2026 | 1st | 17/2 | 55% | 100% | +0.45 |
| 18/05/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 13% | -0.24 |
| 06/06/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 91% | +0.54 |
| 20/06/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 38% | -0.10 |
| 25/07/2026 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 25/09/2026 | 11th | 25/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |