8
Amazing Surprise
2yo Filly · 8-5 · Draw 2
Marseille · Prix De Tournefort Claiming Stakes · 7f 100y
#2
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
11%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength32%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.9
Today:
Class gap: +0.6
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | Lyon La Soie | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-14 | Vichy | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Vichy | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Vichy | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Strasbourg | 3 | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-05-23 | Lyon-Parilly | 3 | 6th | 4th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 4-8 · tight 64/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -2.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/03/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 20% | -0.38 |
| 10/04/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 27/04/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 60% | -0.27 |
| 23/05/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 58% | +0.43 |
| 16/06/2026 | 4th | 22/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 25/07/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 38% | +0.22 |
| 03/08/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 14/08/2026 | 6th | 11/8 | 93% | 0% | -0.93 |
| 02/10/2026 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 25% | -0.33 |