1
Lovely Warrior
2yo Colt · 9-2 · Draw 6
Marseille · Prix De Tournefort Claiming Stakes · 7f 100y
#1
Rank
Odds
17/10
Win Prob
97%
Place Prob
71%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▼1
Strength46%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.6
Today:
Class gap: +0.9
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | Saint-Cloud | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-09-14 | Salon-De-Provence | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-13 | Deauville | 2 | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2026-06-26 | Deauville | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Marseille-borely | 3 | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-05-23 | Lyon-Parilly | 3 | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 45/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength76%
Delivery trend -0.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/04/2026 | 6th | 2/1 | 89% | 0% | -0.89 |
| 05/05/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 83% | +0.46 |
| 23/05/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 92% | +0.23 |
| 12/06/2026 | 3rd | 1/1 | 95% | 71% | -0.23 |
| 26/06/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 13/08/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 14/09/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 58% | -0.05 |
| 02/10/2026 | 8th | 17/2 | 55% | 0% | -0.55 |