1
Nympheas
3yo Filly · 9-7 · Draw 1
Marseille · Prix Du Cercle Des Phoceens Claiming Stakes · 1m 1f 207y
#1
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
86%
Place Prob
66%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 6.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Salon-De-Provence | ? | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-08-12 | Vichy | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Vichy | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Aix-Les-Bains | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Salon-De-Provence | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Marseille | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 3-7 · tight 59/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▼
Strength16%
Delivery trend -5.1% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/03/2026 | 15th | 33/1 | 0% | 7% | +0.07 |
| 02/05/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 22/05/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 86% | +0.70 |
| 06/06/2026 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 17/06/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 07/07/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 23/07/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 20% | -0.59 |
| 12/08/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 60% | +0.34 |
| 14/09/2026 | 12th | 33/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |