6
Valderrama
3yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 6
Marseille · Prix Du Port De L'eoube Stakes · 1m 1f 207y
#2
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
16%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength35%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 2.5)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.9
Today:
Class gap: +0.6
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-29 | Marseille-borely | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-31 | Saint-Cloud | 3 | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
| 2026-07-26 | Mont De Marsan | 3 | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2026-07-08 | Saint-Cloud | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Chantilly | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Compiegne | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 33/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▼
Strength52%
Delivery trend -4.7% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/05/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 75% | +0.59 |
| 19/06/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 43% | -0.36 |
| 08/07/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 86% | +0.03 |
| 26/07/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 31/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 89% | +0.15 |
| 29/09/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 86% | -0.06 |