10
Rathbran Lady
2yo Filly · 8-7 · Draw 5 · OR 46
Navan · Navan Racing Festival Hospitality On Sale Now Nursery Handicap · 5f 180y
#10
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength7%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 8.2 /10 (raw 8.2)
Highest class: BHA47
Recent avg: C6.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 | Down Royal | BHA47 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-09-17 | Naas | BHA50 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-09-04 | Down Royal | BHA52 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-27 | Navan | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Dundalk | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | Curragh | ? | 12th | 12th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 100% of fieldRange 7-10 · tight 72/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -5.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08/2026 | 12th | 80/1 | 0% | 15% | +0.15 |
| 15/08/2026 | 10th | 200/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 27/08/2026 | 7th | 300/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 04/09/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 17/09/2026 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |
| 28/09/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |