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5yo Gelding · 10-1 · Draw 4 · OR 59

Navan · Book Your Discounted Tickets On NavanRacecourse.ie Handicap (0-60) · 5f 180y

#7

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Justified strong support in a first-time tongue strap when finally off the mark at Cork last week so not taken lightly despite a 7 lb rise.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength13%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 9.3 /10 (raw 7.9)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA62 @ Cork 10/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 20 · OR 62 · 6f Sft 123 · beat its mark10/09/2025 · OR 62 par10/0962OR 62BHA62 @ Navan 22/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 62 · 5f Sft 125 · beat its mark22/10/2025 · OR 62 parBHA64 @ Curragh 02/11/2025 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR 64 · 5f Hvy 119 · below its mark02/11/2025 · OR 64 par2/1164OR 64BHA63 @ Navan 25/04/2026 · Pos 12th of 16 · OR 63 · 5f Goo 133 · below its mark25/04/2026 · OR 63 parBHA62 @ Naas 09/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 16 · OR 62 · 5f Gd 132 · below its mark09/05/2026 · OR 62 par9/0562OR 62BHA60 @ Navan 07/06/2026 · Pos 17th of 21 · OR 60 · 5f Goo 130 · below its mark07/06/2026 · OR 60 parBHA56 @ Down Royal 19/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 56 · 5f Sft 126 · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 56 par19/0656OR 56BHA56 @ Navan 11/07/2026 · Pos 14th of 15 · OR 56 · 5f180y Goo 126 · below its mark11/07/2026 · OR 56 parBHA52 @ Cork 29/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 19 · OR 52 · 6f Sft 136 · beat its mark29/09/2026 · OR 52 par29/0952OR 52projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 25
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-29CorkBHA521st1st0
2026-07-11NavanBHA5614th14th0
2026-06-19Down RoyalBHA562nd2nd0
2026-06-07NavanBHA6017th17th0
2026-05-09NaasBHA6210th10th0
2026-04-25NavanBHA6312th12th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/0925/0419/0629/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 2592% of fieldRange 1-21 · tight 40/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength62%

Delivery trend -3.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 25. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/09/20253rd16/116%89%+0.74
22/10/20253rd4/179%80%+0.01
02/11/20259th9/153%38%-0.14
25/04/202612th13/266%27%-0.39
09/05/202610th8/158%40%-0.18
07/06/202617th20/10%20%+0.20
19/06/20262nd5/174%86%+0.12
11/07/202614th12/137%7%-0.30
29/09/20261st9/276%100%+0.24