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5

Jesus Green

2yo Colt · 9-7 · Draw 10

Navan · Navan Racecourse Welcomes Our Local Community Maiden · 1m 40y

#1

Rank

Odds

2/1

Win Prob

84%

Place Prob

55%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has made a very bright start, beaten just a ½-length in 1m Leopardstown maiden on debut (quickened to the front in pretty taking fashion and only beaten by another promising type) and running a huge race again in second in 9f Group 1 there subsequently. Will be hard to beat.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▼4
Strength10%

What the class read says

Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.

Dropping 8 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 2.0)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.1
Today:
Class gap: +3.9
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Leopardstown 06/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 1m Goo 1316/08C81 @ Leopardstown 12/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR - · 1m1f Gd 131 · HIGHER CLASS12/091projClass-projected finish: 1st of 1
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12Leopardstown12nd-7th+8
2026-08-06Leopardstown?2nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/0812/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 11100% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 71/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +17.6% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/08/20262nd9/153%86%+0.33
12/09/20262nd12/137%88%+0.51