2
Expert Dancer
3yo Filly · 9-8 · Draw 5 · OR 83
Navan · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Handicap · 1m 40y
#5
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength1%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | Galway | BHA80 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Limerick | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Curragh | BHA80 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Limerick | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-04 | Cork | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-21 | Curragh | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 938% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 59/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength79%
Delivery trend -5.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10/2025 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 79% | +0.73 |
| 21/10/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 80% | +0.54 |
| 04/04/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 25/04/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 83% | +0.02 |
| 24/05/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 45% | +0.09 |
| 19/06/2026 | 1st | 85/40 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 27/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 93% | +0.51 |