IvyArcIvyArc
3

Sanctijude

3yo Filly · 9-8 · Draw 3 · OR 83

Navan · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Handicap · 1m 40y

#4

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

3%

Place Prob

10%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Fairly useful filly who belatedly got off the mark in a 9-runner 1m maiden at Gowran in May and added another success when landing a 14-runner handicap at Punchestown last month by ½ length from Neo Smart. Up 5 lb but should remain competitive.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength4%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA80 @ Curragh 28/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 80 · 7f Yie 138 · below its mark28/09/2025 · OR 80 par28/0980OR 80C8 @ Gowran Park 20/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 84 · 1m75y Hvy 127 · below its mark20/10/2025 · OR 84 parC8 @ Naas 22/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 83 · 1m Sft 129 · below its mark22/03/2026 · OR 83 par22/03C8OR 83C8 @ Gowran Park 22/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 15 · OR 83 · 1m Sft 129 · below its mark22/04/2026 · OR 83 parBHA79 @ Curragh 04/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 79 · 7f Gd 131 · below its mark04/05/2026 · OR 79 par4/0579OR 79C8 @ Gowran Park 20/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 79 · 1m Goo 129 · beat its mark20/05/2026 · OR 79 parBHA81 @ Curragh 28/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 16 · OR 81 · 1m1f Gd 123 · below its mark28/06/2026 · OR 81 par28/0681OR 81BHA81 @ Curragh 19/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 81 · 1m GF 124 · below its mark19/07/2026 · OR 81 parBHA78 @ Punchestown 15/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 78 · 1m1f30y Goo 133 · beat its mark15/09/2026 · OR 78 par15/0978OR 78projClass-projected finish: 4th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-15PunchestownBHA781st1st0
2026-07-19CurraghBHA814th4th0
2026-06-28CurraghBHA817th7th0
2026-05-20Gowran Park?1st1st0
2026-05-04CurraghBHA794th4th0
2026-04-22Gowran Park?3rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/0922/0428/0615/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 74/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength95%

Delivery trend +1.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 9.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/09/20253rd4/179%80%+0.01
20/10/20252nd5/287%90%+0.03
22/03/20264th4/179%67%-0.12
22/04/20263rd7/282%86%+0.04
04/05/20264th7/282%73%-0.09
20/05/20261st7/491%100%+0.09
28/06/20267th33/10%60%+0.60
19/07/20264th5/287%40%-0.47
15/09/20261st9/276%100%+0.24