4
Thrifty Of Digby
5yo Mare · 9-6 · Draw 7 · OR 78
Navan · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Handicap · 1m 40y
#2
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
8%
Place Prob
17%
Rank
#2
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength21%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class: BHA59
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Leopardstown | BHA79 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | Leopardstown | BHA81 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Gowran Park | BHA81 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Down Royal | BHA80 | 0 | ||
| 2026-06-01 | Gowran Park | BHA75 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-18 | Roscommon | BHA70 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 2-8 · tight 52/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength50%
Delivery trend -2.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/09/2025 | 7th | 11/1 | 42% | 54% | +0.12 |
| 08/10/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 75% | +0.22 |
| 08/04/2026 | 14th | 16/1 | 16% | 13% | -0.02 |
| 03/05/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 22% | -0.04 |
| 18/05/2026 | 1st | 11/1 | 42% | 100% | +0.58 |
| 01/06/2026 | 1st | 17/2 | 55% | 100% | +0.45 |
| 07/08/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 67% | -0.15 |
| 20/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 86% | +0.15 |
| 12/09/2026 | 14th | 11/1 | 42% | 24% | -0.19 |