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14

Connova

3yo Filly · 8-13 · Draw 13 · OR 47

Navan · Racing Again 21st October Handicap (0-60) (Div 1) · 1m 2f 30y

#4

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

6%

Place Prob

12%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Consistent filly that has finished in the frame on all 7 handicap starts, including when second over C&D in September and when 2¼ lengths third of 14 to Highway Sixty One at Dundalk on latest. Should again be thereabouts.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength45%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 6.3)

Highest class: BHA43
Recent avg: C4.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Naas 28/04/2025 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR - · 5f205y Goo 12828/04C8C8 @ Leopardstown 12/06/2025 · Pos 15th of 17 · OR - · 7f47y Sft 129C8 @ Curragh 02/11/2025 · Pos 17th of 20 · OR - · 1m Hvy 1282/11C8BHA45 @ Gowran Park 01/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 45 · 1m1f120y Yie 125 · beat its mark01/06/2026 · OR 45 parBHA45 @ Ballinrobe 22/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 45 · 1m1f163y Yie 125 · beat its mark22/06/2026 · OR 45 par22/0645OR 45BHA45 @ Ballinrobe 20/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 45 · 1m1f135y Goo 119 · beat its mark20/07/2026 · OR 45 parBHA46 @ Gowran Park 12/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 16 · OR 46 · 1m1f100y GF 120 · beat its mark12/08/2026 · OR 46 par12/0846OR 46BHA43 @ Navan 05/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 21 · OR 43 · 1m2f10y Gd 121 · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 43 parBHA47 @ Dundalk 25/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 47 · 1m4f Std 123 · beat its mark25/09/2026 · OR 47 par25/0947OR 47projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 17
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-25DundalkBHA473rd3rd0
2026-09-05NavanBHA432nd2nd0
2026-08-12Gowran ParkBHA464th4th0
2026-07-20BallinrobeBHA453rd3rd0
2026-06-22BallinrobeBHA453rd3rd0
2026-06-01Gowran ParkBHA454th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/041/0612/0825/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1788% of fieldRange 4-11 · tight 69/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▼
Strength61%

Delivery trend -5.2% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 3rd of 17. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/04/20256th25/10%58%+0.58
12/06/202515th66/10%13%+0.13
02/11/202517th200/10%16%+0.16
01/06/20264th9/153%77%+0.24
22/06/20263rd8/158%85%+0.27
20/07/20263rd5/696%75%-0.21
12/08/20264th9/488%80%-0.08
05/09/20262nd10/382%95%+0.13
25/09/20263rd7/282%85%+0.03