11
Matties Point
3yo Gelding · 9-4 · Draw 1 · OR 52
Navan · Racing Again 21st October Handicap (0-60) (Div 1) · 1m 2f 30y
#8
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#8
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength7%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 8.3 /10 (raw 8.3)
Highest class: BHA52
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | Bellewstown | BHA52 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-09-15 | Punchestown | ? | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Leopardstown | ? | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Dundalk | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1738% of fieldRange 9-17 · tight 59/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength25%
Delivery trend -5.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 17. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 06/08/2026 | 12th | 100/1 | 0% | 15% | +0.15 |
| 15/09/2026 | 13th | 200/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 01/10/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 63% | +0.26 |