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7

Nephin Mountain

3yo Gelding · 9-10 · Draw 2 · OR 58

Navan · Racing Again 21st October Handicap (0-60) (Div 1) · 1m 2f 30y

#3

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

17%

Place Prob

20%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Doubled his tally in a higher grade here (1m) in late-August. Subsequent third back here has worked out very well and confirmed himself still in fine heart when 2 lengths fourth at Punchestown (9f) last month. Below form at Bellewstown 6 days ago but step back up in trip should suit.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength40%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 6.1)

Highest class: BHA51
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA52 @ Naas 04/07/2026 · Pos 14th of 16 · OR 52 · 1m2f194y Goo 132 · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 52 par4/0752OR 52BHA51 @ Down Royal 17/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 51 · 1m5f Goo 125 · beat its mark17/07/2026 · OR 51 parBHA51 @ Ballinrobe 20/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 51 · 1m1f135y Goo 125 · beat its mark20/07/2026 · OR 51 par20/0751OR 51BHA55 @ Galway 02/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 55 · 1m73y Yie 119 · beat its mark02/08/2026 · OR 55 parBHA54 @ Gowran Park 12/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 15 · OR 54 · 1m1f100y GF 128 · beat its mark12/08/2026 · OR 54 par12/0854OR 54BHA53 @ Navan 27/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 53 · 1m20y Goo 119 · beat its mark27/08/2026 · OR 53 parBHA57 @ Navan 05/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 21 · OR 57 · 1m2f10y Gd 133 · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 57 par5/0957OR 57BHA58 @ Punchestown 15/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 58 · 1m1f30y Goo 134 · beat its mark15/09/2026 · OR 58 parBHA58 @ Bellewstown 01/10/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 58 · 7f195y Sft 140 · beat its mark01/10/2026 · OR 58 par1/1058OR 58projClass-projected finish: 4th of 17
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-01BellewstownBHA586th6th0
2026-09-15PunchestownBHA584th4th0
2026-09-05NavanBHA573rd3rd0
2026-08-27NavanBHA531st1st0
2026-08-12Gowran ParkBHA545th5th0
2026-08-02GalwayBHA556th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/072/085/091/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1775% of fieldRange 2-17 · tight 31/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength47%

Delivery trend -1.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 17.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/07/202614th10/147%13%-0.34
17/07/20265th18/15%33%+0.28
20/07/20261st11/271%100%+0.29
02/08/20266th16/116%50%+0.34
12/08/20265th10/147%71%+0.24
27/08/20261st11/142%100%+0.58
05/09/20263rd10/147%90%+0.43
15/09/20264th5/174%75%+0.01
01/10/20266th7/282%38%-0.44