13
Dress Dance
4yo Filly · 9-2 · Draw 7 · OR 46
Navan · Racing Again 21st October Handicap (0-60) (Div 2) · 1m 2f 30y
#16
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#16
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength7%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 10.2 /10 (raw 10.2)
Highest class: BHA50
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Punchestown | BHA50 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-09-02 | Navan | BHA52 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-19 | Cork | BHA54 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2025-10-11 | Naas | ? | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2025-09-16 | Punchestown | ? | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2025-04-19 | Cork | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish15th of 1713% of fieldRange 8-17 · tight 59/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength17%
Delivery trend -0.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 15th of 17.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/04/2025 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 16/09/2025 | 13th | 40/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 11/10/2025 | 13th | 150/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 19/05/2026 | 12th | 22/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 02/09/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 15/09/2026 | 11th | 14/1 | 26% | 17% | -0.10 |