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16

Morning Approach

8yo Mare · 9-0 · Draw 1 · OR 44

Navan · Racing Again 21st October Handicap (0-60) (Div 2) · 1m 2f 30y

#15

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#15

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Twenty-two runs since last win in 2024, but left the impression she should have finished much closer from her career-low mark and back up in trip when 13¼ lengths thirteenth of 21 to Millhone in C&D handicap last time, headway when denied a run over 1f out.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 11.5 /10 (raw 7.9)

Highest class: BHA44
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA57 @ Dundalk 09/01/2026 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR 57 · 1m Std 139 · below its mark09/01/2026 · OR 57 par9/0157OR 57BHA52 @ Dundalk 06/02/2026 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR 52 · 1m Std 134 · beat its mark06/02/2026 · OR 52 parBHA55 @ Roscommon 11/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 55 · 7f111y Gd 138 · beat its mark11/05/2026 · OR 55 par11/0555OR 55C9 @ Gowran Park 12/06/2026 · Pos 14th of 14 · OR 52 · 1m Yie 134 · below its mark12/06/2026 · OR 52 parBHA49 @ Leopardstown 09/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 22 · OR 49 · 1m1f Goo 131 · beat its mark09/07/2026 · OR 49 par9/0749OR 49BHA49 @ Naas 22/07/2026 · Pos 14th of 18 · OR 49 · 1m Goo 131 · beat its mark22/07/2026 · OR 49 parBHA49 @ Gowran Park 25/07/2026 · Pos 11th of 13 · OR 49 · 1m1f110y Goo 131 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 49 par25/0749OR 49BHA48 @ Cork 14/08/2026 · Pos 11th of 17 · OR 48 · 1m Goo 131 · beat its mark14/08/2026 · OR 48 parBHA44 @ Navan 05/09/2026 · Pos 13th of 21 · OR 44 · 1m2f10y Gd 128 · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 44 par5/0944OR 44projClass-projected finish: 14th of 17
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05NavanBHA4413th13th0
2026-08-14CorkBHA4811th11th0
2026-07-25Gowran ParkBHA4911th11th0
2026-07-22NaasBHA4914th14th0
2026-07-09LeopardstownBHA496th6th0
2026-06-12Gowran Park?14th14th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/0112/0625/075/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish16th of 176% of fieldRange 9-17 · tight 66/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▼
Strength4%

Delivery trend -2.8% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 16th of 17. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/01/202612th18/15%15%+0.10
06/02/202611th50/10%23%+0.23
11/05/20265th18/15%69%+0.64
12/06/202614th25/10%0%0.00
09/07/20266th25/10%76%+0.76
22/07/202614th8/158%24%-0.34
25/07/202611th10/147%17%-0.31
14/08/202611th22/10%38%+0.38
05/09/202613th14/126%40%+0.14