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9

Pebble Island

4yo Gelding · 9-8 · Draw 2 · OR 52

Navan · Racing Again 21st October Handicap (0-60) (Div 2) · 1m 2f 30y

#14

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#14

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Back in cheekpieces when a resurgent second of 17 in handicap at Fairyhouse (1½m) in June but wasn't in quite the same form at Down Royal next time and well held in 3 quick races over hurdles subsequently. Drops back in trip on return from 75-day break. One to consider.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▬
Strength39%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 7.4)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Leopardstown 15/04/2026 · Pos 12th of 16 · OR 67 · 7f Yie 127 · beat its mark15/04/2026 · OR 67 par15/04C5OR 67BHA66 @ Navan 25/04/2026 · Pos 19th of 23 · OR 66 · 1m2f40y Goo 136 · below its mark25/04/2026 · OR 66 parBHA62 @ Curragh 04/05/2026 · Pos 12th of 15 · OR 62 · 7f Gd 132 · below its mark04/05/2026 · OR 62 par4/0562OR 62BHA57 @ Fairyhouse 28/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 16 · OR 57 · 1m1f210y Gd 127 · beat its mark28/05/2026 · OR 57 parBHA52 @ Fairyhouse 12/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 17 · OR 52 · 1m4f Goo 134 · beat its mark12/06/2026 · OR 52 par12/0652OR 52BHA53 @ Down Royal 20/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 53 · 1m4f207y Sft 135 · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 53 parC8 @ Bellewstown 04/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR - · 2m1f40y Gd 1544/07C8C8 @ Sligo 12/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR - · 2m1f90y Gd 153C8 @ Kilbeggan 24/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 15 · OR 102 · 2m2f200y Gd 153 · below its mark24/07/2026 · OR 102 par24/07C8OR 102projClass-projected finish: 6th of 17
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-24Kilbeggan?9th9th0
2026-07-12Sligo?4th4th0
2026-07-04Bellewstown?4th4th0
2026-06-20Down RoyalBHA534th4th0
2026-06-12FairyhouseBHA522nd2nd0
2026-05-28FairyhouseBHA5710th10th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/0428/054/0724/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1738% of fieldRange 4-17 · tight 44/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▼
Strength38%

Delivery trend -5.7% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 11th of 17. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/04/202612th80/10%27%+0.27
25/04/202619th66/10%18%+0.18
04/05/202612th66/10%21%+0.21
28/05/202610th40/10%40%+0.40
12/06/20262nd16/116%94%+0.78
20/06/20264th7/282%77%-0.05
04/07/20264th20/10%50%+0.50
12/07/20264th5/287%70%-0.17
24/07/20269th4/179%43%-0.36