Californian Angel

2yo Filly · 9-2 · Draw 3 · OR 75

Nottingham · EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race) · 6f 18y

#1

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

99%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▬ NO MARK

Move▼2

Strength80%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.7 /10 (raw 3.7)

Highest class: 1

Recent avg: C2.3

Today: 4

Class gap: +1.7

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-04	Haydock	2	2nd	0th	+2	5.0
2026-06-25	Newmarket	1	6th	2nd	+3	7.8
2026-06-03	Nottingham	4	3rd	3rd	0	7.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 27/100

▬ OVER-DELIVERING

Trend▼

Strength72%

Delivery trend -10.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
03/06/2026	3rd	12/1	37%	82%	+0.45
25/06/2026	6th	8/1	58%	29%	-0.29
04/09/2026	2nd	11/1	42%	67%	+0.25