Hello Friend
3yo Filly · 9-8 · Draw 6 · OR 78
Nottingham · Racedays For 9 Pound At Nottingham Racecourse Fillies' Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 3.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Newbury | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Newmarket | 3 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-07-27 | Southwell | 3 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-06-16 | Thirsk | 3 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-05-19 | Newcastle | 3 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -6.4% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/05/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 80% | +0.14 |
| 16/06/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 75% | -0.17 |
| 27/07/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 77% | +0.30 |
| 15/08/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 75% | +0.09 |
| 18/09/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 43% | -0.31 |