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Nightsinwhitesatin

4yo Filly · 9-12 · Draw 3 · OR 76

Nottingham · Racedays For 9 Pound At Nottingham Racecourse Fillies' Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 6f

#6

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Course winner last summer. In the frame first 6 starts (runner-up 4 times) this season before not seen to best effect at Newbury last time. Ought to be thereabouts again if seeing out this longer trip (can race freely). Change of headgear.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength26%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Nottingham 02/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 77 · 1m2f50y Goo 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/10/2025 · OR 77 par2/102OR 774 @ Catterick 28/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 77 · 1m4f13y Sft 129 · beat its mark28/10/2025 · OR 77 par4 @ Thirsk 18/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 77 · 1m4f8y Goo 132 · beat its mark18/04/2026 · OR 77 par18/044OR 774 @ Chester 08/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 15 · OR 79 · 1m4f63y Goo 137 · beat its mark08/05/2026 · OR 79 par4 @ Catterick 21/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR 79 · 1m4f13y Goo 135 · beat its mark21/05/2026 · OR 79 par21/054OR 794 @ York 10/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 79 · 1m3f188y Goo 140 · beat its mark10/07/2026 · OR 79 par4 @ Hamilton 17/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 3 · OR 79 · 1m4f15y Goo 132 · beat its mark17/07/2026 · OR 79 par17/074OR 794 @ Haydock 03/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 79 · 1m2f42y Sft 137 · beat its mark03/09/2026 · OR 79 par4 @ Newbury 18/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 77 · 1m4f Goo 134 · beat its mark18/09/2026 · OR 77 par18/094OR 77projClass-projected finish: 4th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-18Newbury46th6th0
2026-09-03Haydock44th4th0
2026-07-17Hamilton42nd2nd0
2026-07-10York42nd2nd0
2026-05-21Catterick42nd2nd0
2026-05-08Chester44th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/108/0517/0718/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 4-6 · tight 76/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength34%

Delivery trend -5.5% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/10/20254th7/163%70%+0.07
28/10/20252nd2/189%86%-0.04
18/04/20262nd3/184%91%+0.07
08/05/20264th11/486%79%-0.07
21/05/20262nd5/493%67%-0.27
10/07/20262nd11/271%89%+0.18
17/07/20262nd7/491%50%-0.41
03/09/20264th3/184%75%-0.09
18/09/20266th10/382%29%-0.54