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Nowshesdancing

4yo Filly · 9-12 · Draw 4 · OR 76

Nottingham · Racedays For 9 Pound At Nottingham Racecourse Fillies' Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 6f

#5

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Made a winning start in Dundalk maiden in January for Mark Fahey. Good third at Wetherby on yard debut on return in April and proved her handicap bow wasn't a true reflection when making the frame last 3 starts, shaping as if this longer trip will suit. Can remain competitive.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength23%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.2)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Dundalk 28/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 1m2f150y Std 13028/01C83 @ Wetherby 26/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR - · 1m2f Goo 149 · HIGHER CLASS26/0434 @ Leicester 08/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 76 · 1m2f Goo 127 · beat its mark08/06/2026 · OR 76 par8/064OR 764 @ Goodwood 19/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 76 · 1m3f218y Goo 131 · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 76 par19/064OR 765 @ Newbury 23/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR 75 · 1m4f GF 135 · beat its mark23/07/2026 · OR 75 par23/075OR 754 @ Yarmouth 16/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 76 · 1m3f104y Goo 138 · beat its mark16/09/2026 · OR 76 par16/094OR 76projClass-projected finish: 5th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-16Yarmouth44th4th0
2026-07-23Newbury52nd3rd−1
2026-06-19Goodwood43rd3rd0
2026-06-08Leicester46th6th0
2026-04-26Wetherby33rd2nd+1
2026-01-28Dundalk?1st6th−4

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/0126/048/0619/0623/0716/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 2-6 · tight 57/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength50%

Delivery trend -18.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/01/20261st18/15%100%+0.95
26/04/20263rd12/137%67%+0.30
08/06/20266th20/10%44%+0.44
19/06/20263rd12/137%67%+0.30
23/07/20262nd10/382%67%-0.16
16/09/20264th15/261%57%-0.03