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4

Reem Rak

3yo Filly · 9-9 · Draw 1 · OR 79

Nottingham · Racedays For 9 Pound At Nottingham Racecourse Fillies' Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 6f

#2

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

6%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Improved stepping up to this trip when a wide-margin winner of a 3-runner event at Doncaster. Hiked up 10 lb but proved she's still on a workable mark when just failing to follow up at Newmarket. Not disgraced back on softer ground at Haydock since.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength42%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Newmarket 22/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR - · 7f Gd 12822/1045 @ Newcastle 22/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR - · 7f14y Std 1285 @ Newcastle 13/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR - · 1m5y Std 12813/1255 @ Nottingham 26/04/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 70 · 1m75y Goo 135 · below its mark26/04/2026 · OR 70 par5 @ Ffos Las 04/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 70 · 1m3f209y GS 135 · beat its mark04/06/2026 · OR 70 par4/065OR 705 @ Doncaster 26/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 3 · OR 70 · 1m6f115y GF 135 · beat its mark26/06/2026 · OR 70 par3 @ Newmarket 15/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 80 · 1m6f GF 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/08/2026 · OR 80 par15/083OR 802 @ Haydock 05/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 80 · 1m6f Hvy 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 80 par5/092OR 80projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Haydock26th4th+2
2026-08-15Newmarket33rd2nd+1
2026-06-26Doncaster51st2nd−1
2026-06-04Ffos Las52nd3rd−1
2026-04-26Nottingham510th11th−1
2025-12-13Newcastle53rd4th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/1026/0415/085/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 34/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength51%

Delivery trend -0.9% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/10/20257th9/276%40%-0.36
22/11/20252nd4/179%83%+0.04
13/12/20253rd3/184%60%-0.24
26/04/202610th10/382%0%-0.82
04/06/20262nd11/142%88%+0.45
26/06/20261st2/189%100%+0.11
15/08/20263rd7/491%50%-0.41
05/09/20266th9/276%29%-0.48