6
Tabasko
3yo Filly · 9-5 · Draw 5 · OR 75
Nottingham · Racedays For 9 Pound At Nottingham Racecourse Fillies' Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Chester | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-08-04 | Lingfield | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Doncaster | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-01 | Epsom Downs | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Salisbury | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-11-24 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 48/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength54%
Delivery trend -4.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09/2025 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 27/09/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 33% | -0.38 |
| 25/10/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 57% | +0.41 |
| 24/11/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 40% | -0.28 |
| 23/05/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 64% | +0.27 |
| 01/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 89% | +0.18 |
| 18/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 50% | -0.43 |
| 04/08/2026 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 19/09/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 56% | -0.10 |