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2yo Colt · 9-7 · Draw 3

Nottingham · British EBF Future Stayers Oath Novice Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race) · 1m 75y

#4

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Nathaniel colt. Half-brother to 6.5f winner Of Good Cheer. Dam, winner up to 1m, half-sister to very smart winner up to 1½m Mirage Dancer out of very smart 1m-9.5f winner Heat Haze. From a talented family but didn't show masses to work on starting out at Sandown 3 weeks ago. Should improve.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.

Class-adjusted form 8.2 /10 (raw 7.0)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Sandown 16/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR - · 1m Goo 13316/093
Actual finishDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-16Sandown37th8th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 525% of fieldRange 5-10 · tight 50/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength33%

Delivery trend +0.0% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 5. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/09/20267th5/174%14%-0.59