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5

Gainful

2yo Filly · 9-2 · Draw 4

Nottingham · British EBF Future Stayers Oath Novice Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race) · 1m 75y

#1

Rank

Odds

2/1

Win Prob

99%

Place Prob

84%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Nathaniel filly. Dam unraced half-sister to smart 1½m-16.2f winner Here And Now out of very smart winner up to 1½m (including Oaks) Look Here. From a family her yard has had plenty of success with and her third-place finish at Newmarket 18 days ago was a promising start. Plenty more to come.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 3.0)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Newmarket 19/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR - · 1m Gd 12819/093
Actual finishDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-19Newmarket33rd4th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 5100% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 50/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +0.0% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 5. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/09/20263rd20/10%67%+0.67