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3

Akaraka

2yo Gelding · 9-4 · Draw 3 · OR 72

Nottingham · British Stallion Studs EBF Nursery (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f 50y

#3

Rank

Odds

13/8

Win Prob

6%

Place Prob

15%

Rank

#3

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Brought along steadily over inadequate trips in maiden/novices and on the back of a gelding operation, he showed more when second of 9 in a 1m nursery at Thirsk a month ago. Further step up in distance can only help his cause.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength4%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Leicester 13/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR - · 7f Goo 13313/0644 @ Chester 10/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR - · 6f17y Goo 13310/0744 @ Ripon 27/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR - · 6f Goo 13027/0745 @ Thirsk 05/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 70 · 7f218y Goo 131 · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 70 par5/095OR 70projClass-projected finish: 5th of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Thirsk52nd3rd−1
2026-07-27Ripon47th7th0
2026-07-10Chester48th8th0
2026-06-13Leicester47th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/0610/0727/075/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 575% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 82/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +29.1% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 5. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/06/20267th13/266%25%-0.41
10/07/20268th12/137%36%-0.00
27/07/20267th16/116%0%-0.16
05/09/20262nd14/126%88%+0.61